Export Potential Of Thai Canned Tuna To Japan

Export Po 10tial Of Thai tinned tunny To lacquerChapter I IntroductionCanned ocean foods sedulousness is a value-added industry for both domestic and imported raw products before tradeingationationation to foreign countries. It has been one of Thais exported agricultural industries which grown in value continuously. Canned tunny fish industry is the approximately valuable keep sea foods in Thailand. It has a value of 84 percent of the total transcribed sea foods export value in 2008. Thailand has been the worlds largest exporter of put up tunny for the last ten years, represents about 40 percent of worlds tinned tuna export get along (EXIM Bank, 2009).japan has been one of the major merchandises of Thai put up tuna export for very long period of times. Japans wander of import has been increasing roughly every year. It imported 1.6 one million million million cartons in 1991 and change magnitude to about 2.6 million cartons in 1995 which Thailand was the number one exporter. Thailand held the securities industry apportions of 53.4 percent in 1991, increased to the highest of 71.8 percent in1994, and decreased to 53.43 percent in 1995 (Boonmasu, 1998). More recently, Thailand still held most of the Japan tin tuna food trade shares (50.9 percent) in 2008, fallowed by In makesia (23.2 percent) and Philippines (16.7 percent) (Global Trade, 2008).However, immediately Thailand is facing the problems of quantity and outlay uncertainty including import tax in exportation of canned tuna to Japan. In the last quarter of 2008 (October December) the export of canned tuna from Thailand experienced a negative trend as a result of the economic crisis. Except for the USA, exports to opposite major markets showed incisive decline during this period including Japan which decreases about 7.8 percent (Josupeit, 2009).Even though Thailand is the worlds largest canned tuna exporter, amount of tuna in Thai body of water area alone is not enough for th e canned tuna industry so Thailand has to import raw natural (tuna) from other countries for up to 70 percent of the total tuna scuttlebutt, this results as the high apostrophize of product because about 73 percent of canned tuna production appeal come from chilled or frozen tuna (Jintatam, 1997)Indonesia and Philippines are the major competitors that deliver some services over Thailand. These two countries have abundance of tuna imaginativeness and low labor cost which give them the advantage of lower cost of production. However, their production forces are still far off Thais total canned tuna production.International trade agreements like the Japan-Thailand Economic Partnership concord (JTEPA) and the ASEAN-Japan Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (AJCEP) are the major factors affect import tax of canned tuna in Japan that essential to be studied. Japan has decreased import tax for Thai canned tuna from 4.3 percent to 3.2 percent in 2009 and pull up stakes d ecrease to 0 percent in 2012 under JTEPA. However, Thailand still has to import raw material (tuna) from other countries and JTEPA only affects tuna that been caught from Thais boat or IOTC (Indian Ocean tunny Commission) members, so Thailand cannot get full advantage from the agreement. It is expected that AJCEP agreement turn outament increase advantage of Thai canned tuna export to Japan after its enforcement in 2009.From the above reasons, it is important to demand Japans canned tuna market nature, market share, proportional advantage of Thailand, and related trade agreements to manipulate a decision of expansion the export of Thais canned tuna market to Japan in the incoming.ObjectivesTo study market nature, change of growth rate and market shares, and militantness of Thai canned tuna in Japan.To study effects of international trade agreements JTEPA and AJCEP to Thai canned tuna export to Japan.To analyze relationships amid frozen tuna prices and amount of Thai canned tuna export to Japan.Contribution/BenefitsThis study pop the questions knowledge of canned tuna market in Japan including growth rate and changes of market share to know potential and competitiveness of Thai exports. And as well provides knowledge of factors effecting export value change to find errors which could be apply by exporters and other researchers for further study.Methodology and VariablesThe study gathers related subaltern data from previous(prenominal) researches, journals and thesis, including statistics from both the government and public sectors e.g. EXIM bank, Department of Export Promotion, Department of avocation Economics, Department of Fisheries, and Food and Agriculture Organization (FOA).Descriptive Analysis will be used to describe nature of canned tuna market export from Thailand to Japan, effects of JTEPA and AJCEP on canned tuna export, growth rate and market shares of Thai canned tuna export to Japan, and SWOT analysis, to chequer competitiveness b etween Thailand and its major competitors Indonesia and Philippines, by using statistic data in the form of chart, percentage, and table to support the description.Grangers spring Test is used to check relationship of frozen tuna price and amount of Thai canned tuna exports to Japan.If away X contains utilizable culture (in addition to the cultivation in past Y) to predict future Y, so X farmer causes Y.Z fails to Granger-causes Y if MSEE(xtIt-1) = MSEE(xtJt-1) present It-1 contains past information on Y and Z while Jt-1 contains past information on Y only. regression xt=c+xt-1+yt-1+utTest H0 =0Chapter II literary productions ReviewSeveral published literatures had examined export potential of Thai canned tuna to foreign markets such as the study of Charoenkhwan (2003) which studied on the ordinary condition of canned tuna marketing in U.S.A., market share of Thai canned tuna in U.S.A. and factors that impact on demand for input of U.S.A. to Thai canned tuna. The result of studying general condition indicated that Thailand was the first ranking of the world in canned tuna industry. They also analyzed on changing of export value of canned tuna by using Constant commercialize Share framework (CMS) indicated that Albacore, Yellow fin and the other tuna of Thailand had exports average growth more than than U.S.A. trade effect. For an analysis on factors that impact on demand for input of U.S.A. to Thai canned tuna was dependent on import price in Thai canned tuna adjusting by consumer price big businessman of U.S.A.Boonmasu (1998) aimed to study the nature, together with the problem and the obstacles of the production and export, including the study of market competitive advantage of Thai canned tuna product by canvas among the majors competitors within this region Philippines and Indonesia. Her study emphasized on important export markets the USA, EU, Japan and the world markets. Quantitative analysis, descriptive analysis and revealed comparative advantage (RCA) are the major tools she used to analyze the gathered secondary data during 1991-1995. The outcome of the study shows that Thailand has to import the frozen tuna more or less 70 percent of the volume needed for production. The analysis of the main export markets of Thailand has found that the product is more competitive comparing to the other competitors. However, such competitive ability and advantage seem to be lessened consistently. domain of Kijboonchoo and Kalayanakupt (2003) attempted to measure the comparative advantage and competitive strength of Thailand in exporting canned tuna to the world market between 1982 and 1998. They also used revealed comparative advantage (RCA) as the major tool. Their study shows that Thailand was the largest exporter of canned tuna in the world market between 1982 and 1998. Thailands comparative advantage has been decreasing in all the studied periods. Also market shares in depots of export volume and value have fallen signifi cantly in the studied periods.Kaewchuey (2007) studied production and marketing of wield issue and crude palm rock oil in Thailand, and analyzed palm oil price relationship between different market levels. The Vector defect Correction Model (VECM) and the Ganger Causality Test were employed to examine the plane and vertical price relationships of palm oil. The results showed that all price series used in this study were integrated of order I. Therefore, the Cointegration Test was applied to test for long term price relationships between the markets. The results indicated that there were long term relationships between international prices of crude palm oil and in large quantities prices, and between wholesale prices and palm fruit prices in local markets. The result from the Grangers Causality Tests revealed that vertical price relationships existed. International prices of crude palm oil Granger-caused wholesale prices, which, in turn, Granger-caused palm fruit prices in loca l markets. The results implied that the price of palm oil at a higher market level could influence the price at a lower market level.Chapter III Japan Canned Tuna MarketMarket CharacteristicsGrowth Rate and Market SharesTable 3.1 Market shares of canned tuna in major market countries in the year 2008(Unit percents)USAAustraliaJapanThailand46.496.250.9Indonesia6.2123.2Philippines12.50.716.7Others34.92.19.2Total degree Celsius100100Source Global Trade, 2008Table 3.2 Thailands frozen tuna imports 2007-2008 (separated by species)(Unit Q in 1,000 tons, V in billion Baht)Species2007Q2007V2008Q2008V% changeQ% changeVSkipjack403.116,169.7498.928,202.923.874.4Yellow Fin844,477.482.25,356.5-2.119.6Albacore32.22,019.424.21,928.4-24.8-4.5Big Eye2.8113.24.2221.150-95.3Others0.818.90.17.216.6-61.9Total522.922,789.6609.635,716.1Source INFOFISHChapter IV International Trade AgreementsJTEPAAJCEPChapter V SWOT AnalysisStrength weaknessOpportunityThreatsChapter VI Grangers Causality TestIf past X con tains useful information (in addition to the information in past Y) to predict future Y, we say X granger causes Y.Note that Grangers causality test whitethorn or may not indicate causal effect of x on y (could you think of some examples?)Z fails to Granger-causes y if MSEE(xtIt-1) = MSEE(xtJt-1)Here It-1 contains past information on Y and Z while Jt-1 contains past information on Y only.Regression xt=c+xt-1+yt-1+utTest H0 =0Chapter VII Conclusion and DiscussionKijboonchoo and Kalayanakupt (2003) had made suggestions of vi possible ways to solve the Thais canned tuna problems and obstacles that should be done by both government and private sector the problem of the need of domestic raw materials should be eliminated or reduced, production plants and procedure should be upgraded, Thai producers and exporters should build up their own brands and trademarks, Producers and exporters should adjust their plants, products and production procedures to graceful the importing countries sta ndards and regulations, the related government unit should provide more information to the Thai producers and exporters, and they should have the web site in order to provide their information to customers.